Week 14 is here, and the BTA Sports model has flagged a few games where the Vegas lines just don’t seem to match what we’re seeing. There are some clear gaps in the spreads and totals, and that’s where the value usually hides, whether it’s an underdog with real upset potential or a number the market hasn’t quite caught up to yet. A handful of matchups stand out more than the rest, and these are the ones worth keeping an eye on before kickoff.
Bengals @ Bills 7-Point Total Variance
- Vegas: O/U 52.5
- BTA: O/U 45.0
ChatGPT said:
Texans @ Chiefs 7-Point Total Variance
- Vegas: O/U 42.5
- BTA: O/U 50.0
The Texans started the season 0-3, but have since gone 7-2 and are back in the running for the AFC South. The Chiefs are coming off a 28-31 loss to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, their worst defensive performance of the season. Looking at the numbers, they are averaging a combined 47.3 points per game, which gives confidence in this game going over the listed total.
Steelers @ Ravens 6-Point Spread Variance
- Vegas: Ravens -5.5
- BTA: Ravens +1.0
This matchup is arguably the most anticipated this Sunday, with the winner taking the sole spot of the AFC North. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses, the most surprising being the Ravens’ 18-point loss to the Bengals on Thanksgiving. They only managed to score 14 points on offense against one of the worst defenses in the league. While the Steelers also struggled last week. Since 2020, this divisional rivalry has been a one-score game 90% of the time, making this a toss up come Sunday.
