The World Cup outright market is usually dominated by the usual heavyweights, but long shots can still offer plenty of intrigue before the tournament begins. With the expanded field creating a different path through the group stage and knockout rounds, a few teams further down the board have enough talent, structure or tournament pedigree to make things interesting. Here are three World Cup long shots worth watching.

🇲🇦 Morocco (+5000)

Morocco proved in 2022 that it is capable of competing with the world’s best, becoming the first African nation to reach a World Cup semifinal. That run was not just a one-off Cinderella story, it was built on defensive discipline, physicality, elite goalkeeping and a group of players comfortable in major European leagues. They enter the tournament as the #7 team on FIFA’s World Rankings, which already gives them a ton of hope this summer. At 50/1, Morocco makes sense as a long shot because it already has a tournament blueprint. Achraf Hakimi gives the team a world-class presence at fullback, while players like Sofyan Amrabat, Noussair Mazraoui and Yassine Bounou bring experience and defensive reliability. The concern is whether Morocco has enough consistent scoring punch to win six or seven matches, but if it stays compact and turns games into low-margin battles, this is not a team the favorites will want to see.

🇪🇨 Ecuador (+8000)

Ecuador is an intriguing long shot because of its athleticism, defensive toughness and rising young talent. This is not a traditional outright contender, but it has the kind of profile that can frustrate more established teams: organized, physical and difficult to break down. In a tournament setting, that can be enough to keep matches close and give an underdog a real chance to advance. The upside comes from the next wave of Ecuadorian talent, led by Moisés Caicedo in midfield and Kendry Páez as one of the most exciting young attackers in the world. If Ecuador can combine that midfield energy with better final-third production, it has the tools to outperform its price. Winning the entire tournament is still a massive ask, but at 80/1 Ecuador has the structure and talent to become one of the more dangerous dark horses on the board.

🇭🇷 Croatia (+9000)

Croatia continues to be priced like a long shot despite having one of the strongest tournament resumes in recent World Cup history. After reaching the final in 2018 and finishing third in 2022, Croatia has repeatedly shown that it knows how to survive knockout-stage pressure. Even as the squad evolves, that experience and composure remain valuable in a tournament where small margins decide everything. The key question is whether Croatia still has enough attacking firepower and midfield control to make another deep run. Luka Modrić has been the face of this generation, but their technical midfield play, patience in possession and comfort in tight matches has been just as important. At 90/1, Croatia is not being priced like a true contender, but its track record suggests it should not be dismissed. If it gets through the group stage and drags opponents into close knockout games, Croatia has already shown it can make a bracket uncomfortable.

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