Bills Vs. Dolphins TNF Preview: Betting & BTA Sports Model Projections

Week 3 kicks off with an AFC East showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. The Bills hope to keep their season undefeated while the Dolphins are looking for a glimmer of hope after starting 0-2. 

Matchup Overview

After a hot 2-0 start, the Bills look every bit like early AFC contenders, with Josh Allen leading a balanced attack and James Cook emerging as a true difference-maker in the backfield. While their offense shines, their defense stepped up in Week 2’s win, holding the Jets to just 10 points.

For Miami, Tua Tagovailoa needs to spark an offense that hasn’t quite found its rhythm. With Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane, the Dolphins still have game-breaking speed, but protecting Tua and creating consistent production has been an issue. Defensively, Miami has struggled to contain explosive plays, and facing an Allen-led attack that thrives on them will definitely cause problems. Miami will need its biggest names to step up to keep this one close, but Buffalo looks like the team in control heading into this matchup.

Last 5 H2H Games

Dolphins 27-30 Bills (11/3/2024)

Bills 31-10 Dolphins (9/12/2024)

Bills 21-14 Dolphins (1/7/2024)

Dolphins 20-48 Bills (10/1/2023)

Dolphins 31-34 Bills (1/15/2023)

BTA’s Player Props To Watch

1. Josh Allen 1+ Rushing Touchdown

Josh Allen is one of the most dominant rushing QBs in the league, which was apparent in Week 1 when he found the endzone twice on the ground. He faces Miami’s defense, which gave up rushing touchdowns to Daniel Jones and Drake Maye in their first two matchups. Our model gives Josh Allen a 43.60% chance to score a rushing touchdown on Thursday.

2. James Cook 25+ Receiving Yards

Miami’s defense allowed 118 receiving yards to running backs last week, which makes this market extremely enticing. In Week 1, James Cook caught 5 passes for 58 yards, proving he is a viable option for Josh Allen in the passing game. He only had 3 receiving yards last week, but that was likely due to the Bills utilizing their run game for over 60% of their total offensive snaps. Our model gives James Cook a 37.18% chance of recording 25+ receiving yards on Thursday.

3. Tua Tagovailoa 1+ Interception Thrown

Tua has struggled in his first two starts, accounting for 3 INTs in the air. Assuming the Bills will put points on the board, the Dolphins will have to utilize their passing game immensely. As Tua is known for throwing the deep ball, his passes are more likely to find the hands of a defender. Our model gives Tua Tagovailoa a 91.17% chance of throwing an interception on Thursday.

Final Thoughts

Buffalo enters Week 3 with both the momentum and the home-field advantage. Josh Allen is in command of a balanced offense, while James Cook’s breakout run game has added another layer of dominance. The BTA model points toward Buffalo controlling the pace in this divisional matchup.