NFL Week 11: BTA's Biggest Variances Of The Week

Week 11 is here, and the BTA Sports model has pinpointed key games where Vegas numbers may be off. With discrepancies in spreads and totals, our data-driven insights highlight where bettors could find real value this weekend, spotting potential upsets and overlooked opportunities. Here are the matchups to watch before kickoff.

Cowboys @ Raiders 10-Point Total Variance

Vegas: O/U 50.5
BTA: O/U 40.31

Vegas is projecting a higher-scoring matchup, but our model has the game going under the listed total. The Raiders’ offense has struggled all season, putting up just 15.4 points per game with limited production both through the air and on the ground, and their inability to sustain drives has consistently slowed down game flow. Dallas has averaged 29.2 points per game, but their output has been volatile, and they face a Raiders defense that just held the Broncos to 10 points.

49ers @ Cardinals 6-Point Total Variance

Vegas: O/U 48.5
BTA: O/U 42.03

This game is expected to go under the listed total, in part because of their Week 3 matchup this season in which the 49ers won 16-15. Both teams are coming off blowout losses, so we should expect the coaches to put heavy emphasis on defense heading into next week.

Texans @ Titans 5-Point Spread Variance

Vegas: Titans +7.0
BTA: Titans +2.40

Vegas has Houston favored, but our model likes the Titans to cover the spread. The Texans’ defense has been strong all season, but their offense has been inconsistent enough to leave the door open. The Titans have struggled to score this season, but they are fresh off a 20-27 loss to the Chargers. With Houston struggling to pull away in recent weeks, our model expects the Titans to hang around and stay within the number.

Author

Jeremy Lyons