Recent Super Bowls have produced a clear betting pattern that continues to stand out. Over the last several seasons, the underdog has won outright in three straight Super Bowls and has covered the spread in five consecutive games, reinforcing how little separation there has been between the final two teams.

From a betting standpoint, this trend reflects how tightly Super Bowl matchups are priced. With two weeks of preparation and heavy market attention, point spreads are rarely far from fair value. As a result, favorites have struggled to create enough margin to justify their price, even when controlling large portions of the game.

Game flow has played a key role in these outcomes. Many recent Super Bowls have remained within one score for most of the second half, limiting opportunities for favorites to pull away. Underdogs that avoid early mistakes and stay within striking distance have consistently positioned themselves to cover, and in several cases, to win outright.

Late-game execution has continued to be the deciding factor. Turnovers, red-zone efficiency, and special teams plays have repeatedly determined results and swung betting outcomes in the final minutes. These moments have reinforced how fragile any edge can be when spreads are tight and totals are efficient.

Let’s compare these trends to this year’s Super Bowl:

The Seahawks are listed as 4.5-point favorites, the largest spread since 2022. In the past 25 seasons, teams favored by 5 or more points are 1-10 ATS and 5-6 SU. Based on this information, history would point bettors in the direction of fading the Seahawks and putting their faith in Drake Maye and the Patriots.

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER