Matchup Overview
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are riding high after a 31-0 shutout victory over the Las Vegas Raiders last week. They were perfect on both sides of the field, putting up 434 total yards of offense while allowing less than 100 total yards on defense. They face a Washington defense that ranks 25th against the pass and 21st against the run.
The Commanders are coming off an extremely disappointing performance against the Cowboys, giving up a season-high 44 points in a 22-point loss. To add insult to injury (literally), 2024 Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels will be OUT tonight, leaving backup Marcus Mariota in line for the start. Mariota is 1-1 this season as a starter, but will need to have a historic game as the Commanders haven’t beaten the Chiefs since 1983!
BTA’s Markets/Props To Watch
| Player/Team | Line | BTA Sports Projection |
| Isiah Pacheco | Over 49.5 Rushing Yards | 89.83% Chance |
| Rashee Rice | Over 5.5 Receptions | 81.42% Chance |
| Marcus Mariota | Over 29.5 Rushing Yards | 63.60% Chance |
1. Isiah Pacheco Over 49.5 Rushing Yards
Pacheco hasn’t had the best start to the season, averaging just 38.7 rushing yards per game. However, he faces a defense that just allowed 100-yard rushers in back-to-back games. Pacheco is averaging a modest 4.1 yards per carry, so as long as he sees a good chunk of rushing attempts, he should be able to eclipse this line. Our model gives Pacheco an 89.83% chance of eclipsing 50+ rushing yards tonight.
2. Rashee Rice Over 5.5 Receptions
After a full year away from the team with an ACL injury, Rice came back with a standout performance (7/42/2). In his short career of just 21 regular-season games, he has averaged 5.24 receptions per game, proving to be the top wide receiver target for Patrick Mahomes. Our model gives him an 81.42% chance of catching 6+ passes tonight.
3. Marcus Mariota Over 29.5 Rushing Yards
Mariota will get the start tonight with second-year QB Jayden Daniels out with an injury. In two starts this season, Mariota is averaging exactly 30 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs’ pass rush has been very effective this season, so expect Mariota to need to run out of the pocket on the regular. Our model gives him a 63.60% chance of rushing for 30+ yards tonight.
