NFL Week 4: Sunday Storylines To Bet

This Sunday, teams chase early-season momentum and individual stars look to continue box score streaks, with some even aiming to make NFL history. Let’s dive into 5 betting markets that excite based on storylines:

1. Derrick Henry To Score A Touchdown

Derrick Henry enters this week with 109 career rushing touchdowns. If he finds the endzone on Sunday, he will tie Walter Payton (110) for the fifth-most rushing touchdowns in NFL history. Henry has recorded a rushing touchdown in 6 of his last 7 games (including playoffs). Our model gives him a 67.35% chance to score on Sunday.

2. Puka Nacua Over 7.5 Receptions

Puka Nacua has dominated in his first year as WR1 for the Rams, recording 8+ receptions in each of his first three games. If he does so on Sunday, he will join Eric Moulds (2002) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (2007) as the only players in NFL history with at least eight catches in each of his team’s first four games of a season. Our model gives Nacua a 47.83% chance to reach this milestone on Sunday.

3. Christian McCaffrey 50+ Rush Yards & 50+ Rec Yards

CMC is back to his former self, gaining 389 total yards in his first three games. Since 2000, only three players have managed at least 50 rushing yards and 50 receiving yards in four straight games: Christian McCaffrey (2018), Charlie Garner (2002), and Robert Smith (2000). McCaffrey has the chance to become the first player to do it TWICE in his career. Our model gives CMC a 23.92% chance of recording 50+ rushing yards and 50+ receiving yards on Sunday.

4. Keenan Allen Over 4.5 Receptions

Keenan Allen has caught 5+ passes in each game this season, bringing his career total to 993 in just 157 games.  With seven receptions on Sunday, he can pass Marvin Harrison (167 games) as the fastest player in NFL history to reach 1,000 career receptions. With the record in sight, Justin Herbert will likely give Allen more targets. Our model gives him an 89.60% chance to record 5+ receptions on Sunday.

5. Dallas Cowboys Under 20.5 Team Total

The Cowboys host Micah Parsons and his new team, the Green Bay Packers, on Sunday Night. In the first three games this season, the Packers have held each opponent to less than 20 points, thanks to the acquisition of Parsons during the offseason. Our model gives the Cowboys a 69.53% chance to be held to their listed under.