Week 5 is here and the BTA Sports model has spotted the biggest spread and total variances heading into the weekend, highlighting where the oddsmakers might be off and where sharp bettors can find an edge. These are the matchups you’ll want circled before kickoff:
Chiefs @ Jaguars 12-Point Total Variance
- Vegas: O/U 46.5
- BTA: O/U 58.55
Our model is calling for fireworks in Jacksonville, with both teams coming off high-scoring performances in Week 4. The Chiefs enter Week 5 with one of the league’s most dynamic offenses, capable of scoring quickly and generating big plays. Jacksonville has shown a balanced and efficient attack through the first four weeks, making them a potent offensive threat. Hopefully, this game proves to be an exciting Monday Night game.
Texans @ Ravens 9-Point Spread Variance
- Vegas: Ravens +1.5
- BTA: Ravens -7.59
The Baltimore Ravens enter this week with a 1-3 record and an injured MVP QB. With Lamar Jackson out, it will be Cooper Rush behind center, who was 9-5 as a starter in Dallas. Even with a backup quarterback, our model favors the Ravens heavily in this matchup, largely in part to the contrasts in offense to start the season. Baltimore ranks 3rd in total points per game, while Houston ranks 29th. If these stats stay true heading into Week 5, Cooper Rush should be able to provide enough offense to win this game.
Buccaneers @ Seahawks 8-Point Total Variance
- Vegas: O/U 44.5
- BTA: O/U 52.63
The Buccaneers and Seahawks square off in a matchup that our model projects to be far more explosive than Vegas’ line. BTA’s model comes in nearly a full touchdown higher, stemming from the way both offenses have performed so far through the first four weeks of the season. With both teams proving they can score in bunches, our model sees this game setting up as a shootout, making the Over much more appealing than the posted line.
Titans @ Cardinals 4-Point Spread Variance
- Vegas: Cardinals -7.5
- BTA: Cardinals -11.67
The Arizona Cardinals enter Week 5 looking to build on a strong offensive start to the season. The Cardinals have been efficient moving the ball, ranking inside the top 10 in total yards per game, while Tennessee ranks near last in both total yards and points per game. If these trends continue, Arizona’s balanced attack should create enough separation to justify why our model projects them as much stronger favorites than the market.
