Week 6 has arrived, and the BTA Sports model has identified the biggest spread and total variances of the weekend, pinpointing where oddsmakers may be off and where sharp bettors can gain an edge. Here are the matchups to keep on your radar before kickoff:
Cardinals @ Colts 11-Point Spread Variance
- Vegas: Colts -6.5
- BTA: Colts +4.32
The matchup between the Cardinals and Colts is our biggest spread variance of the week. Vegas has the Colts favored by a touchdown, but the BTA Sports model sees the market greatly mispricing this game. The Colts are rightfully favored after what we saw in Week 5, but it’s unlikely they’ll score 5 rushing touchdowns this week against the Cardinals’ 8th-ranked rushing defense. The Cardinals have an above-average team, but mistakes have brought them to a 2-3 record.
Titans @ Raiders 7-Point Spread Variance
- Vegas: Raiders -4.5
- BTA: Raiders +2.11
Our model leans towards an upset in Las Vegas, with the Titans winning this one outright as underdogs. The Titans pulled off a dramatic 22-21 comeback at Arizona last week, erasing a 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter to notch their first win of the season. #1 draft pick Cam Ward finally found his rhythm, throwing for a season-high 265 yards. Meanwhile, the Raiders were dismantled by Indianapolis, losing 40–6, giving up 317 total yards and turning the ball over twice.
49ers @ Buccaneers 7-Point Total Variance
- Vegas: O/U 47.5
- BTA: O/U 54.67
This matchup has all the makings of a shootout, with our model placing the total much higher than Vegas. The Bucs are coming off a 38-point performance in Seattle, now ranking them 7th in total points per game (27.0). Don’t be surprised if this one sails past the projected total.
