1. Falcons @ Patriots -5.5 Spread
The New England Patriots have been one of the more surprising storylines this year, currently 6-2 and riding a five-game winning streak. They are averaging 30.6 PPG during their win streak. Led by QB Drake Maye, who is having an MVP-like start to his second season, they face a Falcons’ defense that just gave up 34 points to a one-win Dolphins team. Our model gives the Patriots a 76.15% chance of covering the spread on Sunday.
2. Brian Thomas Jr. 60+ Receiving Yards
Brian Thomas Jr. has had an underperforming start to his second year in the league, averaging just 52.1 receiving yards per game. However, with Travis Hunter headed to the IR, Thomas will be the main target for Trevor Lawrence. He faces a Raiders’ secondary that ranks 20th against the pass. Our model gives him a 75.28% chance of recording 60+ receiving yards on Sunday.
3. Vikings @ Lions -8.5 Spread
The Lions enter this matchup fresh off a bye as the #3 scoring offense in the league (30.7 PPG). Historically, the Lions own the Vikings, having won their last 5 matchups. The Vikings enter this game on a two-game losing streak and the reintroduction of second-year QB J.J. McCarthy, who is coming back from injury. Our model gives the Lions a 74.05% chance of covering the spread on Sunday.
4. Broncos @ Texans Over 39.5 Total Points
The Broncos come into this week riding an offensive hot streak, racking up a league-high 77 points over their last two games. On the other sideline, the Texans are coming off a 26-point outing fueled by C.J. Stroud’s 317-yard passing performance. Our model gives this game a 70.23% chance of going OVER the listed total on Sunday.
5. Aaron Rodgers 2+ Passing Touchdowns
Rodgers has had a good start to his first season in Pittsburgh, currently atop the AFC North at 4-3. He has thrown multiple touchdowns in 6 of 8 games this season, and will likely be throwing the ball a ton as the Steelers are facing the #1 scoring offense in the league. Our model gives Rodgers a 59.48% chance of throwing 2+ touchdowns on Sunday.
