When you line up our numbers against the current Vegas markets, the clearest takeaway is how often players are projected to fall short of their listed lines. This usually points to a game where drives are harder to sustain, possessions are shorter, and defenses dictate tempo rather than letting offenses get comfortable.

For New England, that theme starts with Rhamondre Stevenson. BTA projects him under both receptions and  rushing attempts, suggesting the Patriots may struggle to establish consistent offensive flow or lean on him heavily in any one role. Even Drake Maye’s rushing upside is lower than the market expects, surprising after his 65-yard performance in the AFC Championship. The one exception is Mack Hollins clearing 26.5 receiving yards, which feels more like a byproduct of selective opportunities than any kind of offensive breakout.

Seattle’s projections tell a similar story. Kenneth Walker going under 18.5 rushing attempts at nearly 92% confidence is one of the strongest signals on the board, pointing to capped rushing volume and potential early resistance up front. Even the few overs that show up, like Rashid Shaheed’s 1.5 receptions, are modest and situational. Put it all together, and BTA’s numbers consistently point to a Super Bowl where defenses control the pace, big stat lines are hard to come by, and the cleanest betting edges live on the under.

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