Paul Skenes’ struggles during the 2026 MLB season have reached a point where they can no longer be dismissed as a few bad starts.

The Pittsburgh Pirates ace is still one of the most talented pitchers in baseball. His strikeout numbers remain strong, and he has shown flashes of the dominance that defined his first two seasons.

But Skenes has not consistently looked like the same pitcher this year.

After posting an ERA below 2.00 in both 2024 and 2025, Skenes entered August 2026 with an ERA approaching 4.00. Those numbers would be respectable for most MLB starters.

For Paul Skenes, they are concerning.

Paul Skenes’ 2026 Stats Show a Decline

Skenes established an almost impossible standard early in his career. He was not simply a promising young pitcher. He immediately became one of the most dominant starters in baseball.

That is why his 2026 performance feels so noticeable.

His ERA has more than doubled from the marks he posted during his first two seasons. He has also dealt with more command problems, shorter outings and stretches in which opposing hitters have looked far more comfortable.

Skenes is not having a terrible season, he is having a disappointing season by Paul Skenes standards.

Paul Skenes’ Fastball Velocity Has Dropped

The biggest concern surrounding Paul Skenes is his declining fastball velocity.

Skenes averaged roughly 98 mph with his fastball last season. That number has fallen closer to 97 mph in 2026. A 97 mph fastball is still elite. However, the difference between elite velocity and overwhelming velocity matters.

When Skenes consistently throws 98 to 100 mph, hitters are forced to make decisions earlier. They must prepare for the fastball while also worrying about his breaking pitches and signature splinker.

With slightly less velocity, hitters gain more time to recognize pitches and punish mistakes. The velocity drop does not automatically mean Skenes is injured. Fatigue, mechanics and workload can all affect velocity.

Command Problems Are Making Things Worse

Skenes’ success has never been based on velocity alone.

At his best, he combines elite stuff with advanced command. He attacks different areas of the strike zone, changes eye levels and makes several pitches look identical out of his hand.

That command has been less consistent this season.

When Skenes falls behind in counts, hitters can become more selective. They can eliminate chase pitches and wait for something over the middle of the plate. That leads to more walks, longer at-bats and rising pitch counts.

Even in starts when opponents are not producing many hits, they are forcing Skenes to work harder than they did during his first two seasons.

For a Pirates team that needs its ace to pitch deep into games, that is a major problem.

The Good News: Paul Skenes Is Not Broken

Despite his struggles, Skenes remains an excellent pitcher.

He is still missing bats at a high level and continues to produce dominant stretches. The talent that made him one of baseball’s biggest stars has not disappeared.

This does not look like a pitcher who has completely lost his stuff. It looks like an elite pitcher dealing with slightly reduced velocity, inconsistent command and the challenges of a heavier workload.

The Pirates do not need to panic. They do, however, need to identify whether the problem is physical, mechanical or strategic.

Should Pirates Fans Be Worried?

Pirates fans should be concerned, but they should not panic.

The declining velocity is real. The command issues are real. The recent uneven performances are real.

At the same time, Skenes is still young and remains capable of dominating any lineup in baseball.

This is not a declaration that Paul Skenes is finished, it is an acknowledgment that something has changed.

For two seasons, Skenes made pitching look easy. His fastball appeared unhittable, his secondary pitches overwhelmed hitters and nearly every start felt like an event.

Now it is up to Skenes and the Pirates to adjust.

Final Thoughts

Paul Skenes is still one of the best young pitchers in baseball, but his fastball velocity has declined, his command has become less reliable, and his outings have looked more difficult.

The Pirates should not overreact, but they also should not pretend that nothing is wrong.

For the first time in his MLB career, Paul Skenes looks human.