Chiefs vs. Chargers in São Paulo: Betting Preview & BTA Sports Model Projections

The NFL is headed to São Paulo for its second-ever regular-season game in Brazil, after last year’s thrilling matchup between the Super Bowl-winning Philadelphia Eagles and the Green Bay Packers. This year, it features the runner-up Kansas City Chiefs and their divisional rival, the Los Angeles Chargers.

Matchup Overview

The Chiefs arrive with unfinished business after losing to the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX, but with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce still leading the offense, they will surely be back in the running this season. On the other sideline, Jim Harbaugh’s first season back in the NFL was a success, leading the Chargers back to the playoffs with an 11-6 record. Justin Herbert remains a threat on offense, but their biggest worry against the Chiefs will be the loss of their star defender Joey Bosa, who they released this offseason.

Last 5 H2H Games

Chargers 17 @ 19 Chiefs (12/8/2024) Chiefs 17 @ 10 Chargers (9/29/2024) Chiefs 13 @ 12 Chargers (1/7/2024) Chargers 17 @ 31 Chiefs (10/22/2023) Chiefs 30 @ 27 Chargers (11/20/2022) *Chiefs have won the last SEVEN matchups!*

Odds vs Algorithm

According to the latest BTA Sports projection, Kansas City wins this matchup 58% of the time, which translates to a fair moneyline of -155, while Vegas has set the line at -170. Our model’s median simulation score of Chiefs 26-21 Chargers lands over the posted total (O/U 45.5). Let’s dive deeper into the projections:

Market	Line	BTA Sports Projection
Game Spread	Chiefs -3.0 (-118)	62.4% Chance
Game Total	Over 44.5 (-125)	55.4% Chance
Team Totals	Chiefs Over 23.5 (-130) Chargers Over 20.5 (-121)	58.0% Chance 51.6% Chance

Against the Spread & Totals Trends

Chiefs ATS 2024: 9-11 overall, 8-9 as favorites Chargers ATS 2024: 12-6 overall, 2-3 as underdogs Chiefs O/U Totals 2024: 9-11 overall on OVER Chargers O/U Totals 2024: 9-9 record on OVER

Player Spotlight: Patrick Mahomes

It’s no surprise that the main topic of discussion will be around how Patrick Mahomes bounces back from the Chiefs’ Super Bowl LIX loss. During the 2024 regular season, Mahomes failed to eclipse 4,000 passing yards for the first time in his career as a starter. He also ranked 19th among qualified QBs in TD/INT ratio (2.36). Our model projects Mahomes to light up the air on Friday, with a 60.75% chance of surpassing 250 passing yards.

Final Thoughts

With the Chiefs favored by both history and the BTA model, all roads lead to Patrick Mahomes leading KC to a victory. Still, Herbert and the Chargers remain live underdogs to spoil the script.