Matchup Overview

The Patriots’ turnaround this season has been remarkable behind Drake Maye. After finishing 4–13 a year ago, first-year head coach Mike Vrabel guided New England to a 14–3 record, an AFC East title, and its first playoff win in the post-Brady era. Last week’s win over the Texans was a defensive masterclass, forcing 5 turnovers and limiting them to just 48 rushing yards. Their offense has struggled in the postseason, and they’ll be up against a defense that ranked third in points allowed per game (18.3) this regular season.

The Broncos secured the top seed in the AFC West and the conference with a 14–3 record. They get home-field advantage in the most important game of the season, relying on a dominant top-three defense to lead the way. All eyes will be on backup QB Jarrett Stidham, who will make his first career playoff start and just the fifth start of his NFL career.

BTA’s Markets/Props To Watch

1. Rhamondre Stevenson Over 2.5 Receptions

Rhamondre Stevenson has had a dominant past few weeks for the Patriots, and with the loss of rookie TreVeyon Henderson, he is due for a bigger share of the snap count. He has recorded 3+ catches in both playoff games this season. Our model gives Stevenson a 79.88% chance of eclipsing this reception line on Sunday.

2. Kayshon Boutte Over 29.5 Receiving Yards

Kayshon Boutte has had strong performances so far this postseason, recording 66 yards and 75 yards, respectively. He has emerged as a solid deep threat for Drake Maye, ranked 2nd in the league with 17.3 yards per catch. Our model gives Boutte a 69.97% chance of recording 30 or more yards on Sunday.

3. Jarrett Stidham Over 0.5 Interceptions

Jarrett Stidham is being put in a tough position, making his first start since the 2023 season against a top 5 defense. He has thrown an interception in 3 of 4 career starts, and faces a secondary that had FOUR last week. Our model gives Stidham a 64.35% chance of throwing an INT on Sunday.

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