DAL Cowboys @ WAS Commanders
After a mid-season surge, the Cowboys have lost 3-straight games to knock themselves out of playoff contention. This game will be nothing more than an opportunity to take down a division rival, a team they dominated 44-22 earlier this season. Their explosive offense should have no issues attacking this Commanders’ defense.
The Commanders will roll out third-string QB Josh Johnson in this matchup, with fans hoping to tank this game to keep a high draft pick next year. The Cowboys’ defense ranks worst against the pass, but should be able to handle Johnson’s first NFL start since 2021.
BEST BET = CeeDee Lamb Over 5.5 Receptions
CeeDee Lamb has been overshadowed a bit by George Pickens, but he has remained consistent as the WR1 of the top offense in the league. Even while missing 3 games to injury, he has notched his fifth-consecutive 1,000 yard season on just 69 receptions. He’s gone over this listed total in each of his last 4 games. Our model gives him a 58.17% chance of recording 6+ receptions on Christmas.
DET Lions @ MIN Vikings
The Lions blundered their playoff hopes in last week’s 29-24 loss to the Steelers. They have just a 7% chance of making the playoffs, needing to win out as well as have the Green Bay Packers lose both of their games. The main reason has been their defensive struggles, allowing 31.6 points per game in the last 5 weeks. Expect them to go all out to try and keep their playoff aspirations alive. It’s been an up-and-down season for the Vikings, with QB J.J. McCarthy being in and out of the blue tent with injuries. They went 3-0 in their NFC East gauntlet these past few weeks, but with no chance of making the playoffs they are simply playing spoiler on Christmas.BEST BET = Jahmyr Gibbs Under 73.5 Rushing Yards
Jahmyr Gibbs has been one of the top RBs in the league, but has struggled to get yards on the ground in December (27.7 YPG). In their Week 11 matchup, Gibbs only rushed for 25 yards. Our model gives him a 69.85% chance of rushing under his listed total on Christmas.
DEN Broncos @ KC Chiefs
The Broncos snapped their 11-game winning streak in last week’s loss to the Jaguars, but still control their own destiny for the top seed in the AFC. They enter this matchup against the Chiefs with high hopes after watching the 2-12 Titans dismantle this defense. If they can win on Christmas, they will need to beat the Chargers in Week 18 for the first-round bye. The Chief’s AFC reign has come to an end with their first missed playoff since 2014. With both Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew out with injury, it will be Chris Oladokun getting his first start of his NFL career.BEST BET = RJ Harvey Over 14.5 Receiving Yards
RJ Harvey has emerged as a star since taking over the starting RB job in Week 11. In his last 5 games, he is averaging 79.6 total yards per game while scoring 5 touchdowns. He’s also gone over the listed receiving yards total in 4 of those 5 games. Our model gives him a 61.92% chance of recording 15+ receiving yards on Christmas.
