The World Cup group stage is where favorites prove themselves, hosts feel the pressure, and dark horses begin to emerge. U.S. Soccer legend Paul Caligiuri shares his predictions for each group:
Group A
Winner: Mexico 🇲🇽
Mexico have a major advantage playing at home, especially with the conditions they will face in group play. Two matches in Mexico City at more than 7,500 feet and another in Guadalajara at more than 5,000 feet give Mexico a clear edge. That familiarity with altitude, combined with the energy of the home crowd, makes Mexico the pick to win Group A.
Runner-Up: South Korea 🇰🇷
South Korea bring experience, leadership, and star power into the tournament. They have qualified for 11 straight World Cups and reached the semifinals in 2002. Captain Son Heung-min gives them elite finishing and leadership, Lee Kang-in adds creativity in the midfield, and Kim Min-jae provides a physical presence in defense. That balance should be enough to push South Korea into the knockout rounds.
Group B
Winner: Canada 🇨🇦
Canada get the edge as the home team. There are some injury concerns defensively, but this is a group with something to prove on the world stage. Jesse Marsch brings experience, motivation, and an aggressive identity to the sideline. With home support behind them, Canada have the energy and belief needed to win the group.
Runner-Up: Switzerland 🇨🇭
Switzerland are one of the safest picks to advance. They are disciplined, organized, and extremely difficult to break down tactically. On paper, Switzerland may be the strongest team in the group, but Canada’s home-field advantage gives the host nation the slight edge for first place.
Group C
Winner: Brazil 🇧🇷
Brazil have the talent, depth, and attacking quality to take control of Group C. Their draw gives them a chance to build momentum early, and their style of play can overwhelm opponents in different ways. Brazil is at its best when they stay true to their identity: skill, pace, creativity, and confidence on the ball.
Runner-Up: Scotland 🏴
Scotland are the bold pick to finish second. Morocco will enter with high expectations, but Scotland have the work rate and leadership to make this group interesting. Andy Robertson, Scott McTominay, and John McGinn give Scotland toughness, quality, and experience. This could be one of the early surprises of the tournament.
Group D
Winner: United States 🇺🇸
The United States have the speed, skill, motivation, and home-field advantage to win this group. This team looks united, and that matters in a tournament setting. Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun lead an attack with enough quality to cause problems. The roster may be thin in certain areas for a deep run, but the U.S. have enough to top the group.
Runner-Up: Türkiye 🇹🇷
Türkiye have a strong core of players competing across Europe’s top leagues. Arda Güler is the player to watch. At just 21 years old, Güler brings vision, control, creativity, and a dangerous left foot. He can be the attacking spark that carries Türkiye into the knockout rounds.
Team to Watch: Australia 🇦🇺
Australia could surprise people and advance as one of the best third-place teams.
Group E
Winner: Germany 🇩🇪
Germany are heavy favorites to win the group, and with good reason. Their tactical structure, midfield quality, and attacking creativity make them one of the strongest teams in the group stage. Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz give Germany one of the best creative duos in the tournament. If Germany bring their current form into the World Cup, they should control this group.
Runner-Up: Ecuador 🇪🇨
Ecuador are built around a strong spine of young, physical, technically gifted players. Moisés Caicedo is one of the best defensive midfielders in the world, while Piero Hincapié and Willian Pacho give Ecuador real strength in the back line. Their athleticism and structure make them a strong pick to advance.
Team to Watch: Ivory Coast 🇨🇮
Ivory Coast could also advance as one of the best third-place teams.
Group F
Winner: Netherlands 🇳🇱
Group F may be one of the toughest groups in the tournament, but the Netherlands have the depth and balance to finish first. The Dutch have enough attacking quality to create chances consistently, while Virgil van Dijk anchors one of the strongest back lines in the competition.
Runner-Up: Japan 🇯🇵
Japan are disciplined, dangerous, and technically sharp. Their qualifying form showed a team capable of scoring goals while staying organized defensively. Ayase Ueda leads the attack, with Takefusa Kubo and Ritsu Doan providing creativity. Japan have the quality to make another strong World Cup run.
Team to Watch: Sweden 🇸🇪 or Tunisia 🇹🇳
Sweden and Tunisia could both be in the mix for a third-place spot. This one feels like a pick ’em.
Group G
Winner: Belgium 🇧🇪
Belgium are the pick to win this group. Kevin De Bruyne remains one of the best playmakers in the world, Romelu Lukaku gives them power and finishing, and Thibaut Courtois provides world-class goalkeeping. The group sets up well for Belgium to take care of business.
Runner-Up: Iran 🇮🇷
Iran are a strong sleeper pick to finish second. They have a seasoned core, reliable attacking options, and favorable matchups in the group. Mehdi Taremi remains the key player, his ability to score and creativity gives Iran a real path to the knockout rounds.
Group H
Winner: Spain 🇪🇸
Spain are one of the top contenders in the tournament, and they should win win this group with ease. Their depth, balance, and midfield control make them extremely difficult to play against. Rodri gives Spain the best possible anchor in midfield, while Pedri, Martín Zubimendi, and Fabián Ruiz help control tempo and possession.
Runner-Up: Uruguay 🇺🇾
Uruguay’s aggressive, high-risk tactical style should cause problems in this group. They have the intensity to press, the midfield quality to compete, and the attacking power to punish mistakes. Federico Valverde and Darwin Núñez give Uruguay top-level weapons, while Ronald Araújo and Manuel Ugarte help provide the defensive edge needed to advance.
Group I
Winner: France 🇫🇷
France are the pick to win Group I and the tournament. They have star power, speed, depth, and World Cup pedigree. Kylian Mbappé is the biggest attacking threat in the competition, and the supporting cast is loaded. Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise, Désiré Doué, and Bradley Barcola give France a level of attacking quality that few teams can match.
Runner-Up: Norway 🇳🇴
Norway are one of the most exciting dark horses in the World Cup. Erling Haaland is the headline star, and he is one of the best pure goal scorers in the world. This is not a one-man team. Alexander Sørloth and Antonio Nusa give Norway more attacking options, making them dangerous enough to go deeper than many expect.
Group J
Winner: Argentina 🇦🇷
Argentina are the easy choice for this group. The defending champions still have the experience, tactical maturity, and belief needed to make another serious run. Lionel Messi will be playing in his sixth World Cup, and the roster around him has the right mix of veterans and younger talent. Emiliano Martínez, Rodrigo de Paul, Alexis Mac Allister, and Julián Álvarez give Argentina a strong foundation.
Runner-Up: Austria 🇦🇹
Austria are a dangerous dark horse. Under Ralf Rangnick, they play a high-pressing “press and stress” system that can suffocate opponents and force mistakes. Marcel Sabitzer, Konrad Laimer, Nicolas Seiwald, David Alaba, and Marko Arnautović give Austria experience, physicality, and leadership. If they stay healthy, they can be a difficult team to beat.
Group K
Winner: Portugal 🇵🇹
Portugal have too much depth and quality to overlook. Their midfield is loaded with vision, intelligence, and technical ability, led by players like Vitinha, João Neves, Bruno Fernandes, and Bernardo Silva. Portugal also have options all over the field with Rafael Leão, Gonçalo Ramos, and João Cancelo. Cristiano Ronaldo’s likely final World Cup adds another layer of motivation for a team with real title ambitions.
Runner-Up: Colombia 🇨🇴
Colombia are the pick to finish second. This team has shown it can compete with some of the best nations in the world, and the group draw gives them a strong path forward. Luis Díaz brings pace and danger on the wing, while James Rodríguez continues to provide creativity in midfield. Colombia have enough attacking quality to advance.
Group L
Winner: England 🏴
England are a legitimate World Cup contender. They have elite attacking talent, a strong core, and one of the best finishers in the world in Harry Kane. Kane’s ability to deliver in tight matches gives England a major advantage. With Thomas Tuchel leading the group, England have the structure and quality to win Group L.
Runner-Up: Croatia 🇭🇷
Croatia always seem to rise in World Cup tournaments. They reached the final in 2018 and continue to show they can handle the pressure of the biggest stage. This version may not have the same star power as past Croatian teams, but they can slow the game down, control the midfield, and frustrate opponents. That should be enough to get through the group.
