BUF Bills @ JAX Jaguars
The Bills, while being known as one of the top teams in the AFC, landed as the 6-seed in what’s being called a “wide-open” conference. They have won 5 of their last 6 games, and rank 4th in points scored per game (28.3). Josh Allen will have to work his magic against Jacksonville’s top 10 defense.
The Jaguars are one of the hottest teams in the league, entering the postseason on a 8-game win streak. During this stretch, they are averaging 33.6 points per game with a +153 point margin. This game has plenty of opportunity to become a shootout with these red-hot offenses.
BEST BET = Brenton Strange Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
Brenton Strange has gotten a consistent target share this season, averaging 45 yards on 5 targets per game. He has eclipsed this line in 3-straight games. Our model gives him a 90.48% chance of recording 30+ receiving yards on Sunday.
SF 49ers @ PHI Eagles
The 49ers fell short of the #1 seed in last week’s 13-3 loss over the Seahawks. Now the 6-seed, they will have to visit the reigning Super Bowl champs in Philly. Prior to this loss, they were on a dominant 6-game winning streak, blowing out their opponents by a combined 86 points. The defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles have had an up-and-down road to the 3-seed, but will rely on their playoff experience to get them back to the big game. Their offense ranks 19th in points per game (22.3), but their 4th ranked defense (19.1 OPPG) has kept them as contenders. The last time these two teams faced was the 2023 NFCCG, where the Eagles blew them out 31-7.BEST BET = Jalen Hurts Under 0.5 Interceptions
Everyone remembers Hurts’ 4-INT performance a few weeks ago against the Chargers. In his other 15 games, he has only thrown 2 interceptions, and faces a defense that ranked 31st in interceptions this season (6). Our model gives Hurts a 77.08% chance of NOT throwing an INT on Sunday.
LA Chargers @ NE Patriots
The Chargers were able to make the playoffs even with their injury-ridden season. QB Justin Herbert has been dealing with a hand injury, while rookie RB Omarion Hampton is questionable due to his ankle. They will need to rely on their defense as they face the #2 ranked offense in the NFL. It’s been an unbelievable turnaround for Drake Maye and the Patriots this season. After going 4-13 last season, first-year head coach Mike Vrabel brought this team to the top of the AFC East with a 14-3 record. All of the speculation this postseason will be if they are able to dominate the top teams in the league after having what is being called one of the easiest schedules ever.BEST BET = Quentin Johnston Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
Quentin Johnston’s strong start to 2025 fizzled out in the middle of the season, but in just the past 2 weeks he has reemerged, grabbing 9 catches for 202 yards and a touchdown. Our model gives him a 62.02% chance of recording 40+ receiving yards on Sunday.
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